Weekly Market Update: November 2, 2015
What We Learned Last Week
- Given the uncertainty about the important economic data that will be released before the Fed’s next policy meeting in December, the policy statement went as far as could be imagined to keep the possibility of a rate increase on the table before year-end.
- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed in the third quarter, reflecting slower inventory accumulation. Final sales and consumer spending expanded at a respectable pace. The GDP slowdown contrasts with solid aggregate production gains.
- Hourly compensation continued to rise at a moderate 2 percent year-over-year rate in the private sector, according to the Employment Cost Index—the broadest and most reliable measure of worker pay. With inflation close to zero this year, real (inflation-adjusted) pay increases are generous.
- Jobless claims remain very low and show no indication of a slowing economic activity.
What We Expect to See in the Week Ahead
- The first string of the month’s economic lineup—car sales and October jobs reports—are expected to be solid. Forecasters look for nonfarm payroll gains in the 175,000 to 200,000 range. Hours worked hold the potential for an upside surprise.
Aaron N. Thornock, MBA | Vice President – Relationship Manager | Chase Business Banking